Can 12-5 NFL Teams Win The Super Bowl?

Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

The Baltimore Ravens find themselves in a familiar spot as the NFL’s regular season ended this past weekend. Coach John Harbaugh’s team won the AFC North, reaching the postseason for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, and Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl odds are strong.

Lamar Jackson and his teammates have one goal after losing at home to the Kansas City Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game – the Super Bowl. As our researchers at BetMaryland.com discovered, the Ravens do have a path to the big game in New Orleans next month. However, it’s far from a guarantee they’ll get there.

BetMaryland.com, as part of our Maryland sports betting coverage, used Champs or Chumps to see how teams did in the playoffs after finishing 12-5 since the 2021 NFL season. Eight teams in the past three seasons (since the NFL adopted a 17-game regular season) have gone 12-5, according to ChampsorChumps.us data.

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Season Performance of NFL Teams Finishing 12-5

Situation

Number of Teams 

Percentage*

Making The Playoffs

8

100%

Advanced Past Wild Card Round

6

75%

Winning Divisional Round

4

50%

Winning Conference Championship

2

25%

Winning Super Bowl

1

13%

The Ravens start their postseason journey against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team very familiar to them. The AFC North rivals play twice each season, and they split this season’s games, with the Ravens cruising to a 34-17 victory at home on Dec. 21.

That broke Pittsburgh’s four-game winning streak in the rivalry, and it was the first time since December 2019 that either team won by more than one score.

Pittsburgh enters the postseason on a down note, having lost its past four games. As a result, oddsmakers were quick to tab the Ravens as a heavy favorite for Saturday’s game. Caesars Maryland Sportsbook offers the Ravens giving 10 points, the largest spread of the six Wild Card Weekend games.

Should the Ravens win, it would likely set up a divisional-round matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Back in Week 4, the Ravens rolled to a 35-10 victory at home over the Bills. However, the Bills would host the playoff game since they finished with a 13-4 mark.

That game would be highly anticipated at Maryland sportsbook apps because Jackson and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen are considered the two frontrunners for Most Valuable Player this season. 

Jackson, the defending MVP and a two-time winner of the award, became the first player in league history to throw for 4,000 yards and run for 900 in the same season. He also threw 41 touchdown passes compared to just four interceptions.

Allen threw for 3,731 yards and enjoyed a 28-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also ran for 531 yards and 12 more touchdowns.

Oddsmakers at DraftKings Maryland Sportsbook list Allen as the favorite, with odds of -500. Jackson is next at odds of +300.

Ravens Among Super Bowl Favorites

Barring an upset, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC isn’t going through Baltimore this postseason. But if the Ravens to go to Kansas City, they’d have an opportunity to avenge a loss in the season opener. The 27-20 loss to the Chiefs ended with replay officials overturning a touchdown pass from Jackson to Isaiah Likely, whose foot landed slightly out of bounds. That TD might have tied the score or even set up Baltimore to win it in regulation with a 2-point try.

The Ravens are the third choice to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM Maryland Sportsbook. Their odds are +600 to win their first Super Bowl in 12 years. That’s the same price as the Buffalo Bills. The only teams with shorter odds are the Detroit Lions (+275) and the Chiefs (+350).

USA Today photo by Jay Biggerstaff

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.

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